There have been a lot of reports examining the effects of repealing the IRA, many of which are discussed on our training page. There are a few new ones I thought I'd highlight here, to try and keep track of all this information 🤓
The energy systems modelers at Energy Innovation put out a report looking at the effects of IRA repeal on the economy, jobs, and emissions. They conclude,
Our analysis finds IRA repeal will:
- Increase cumulative household energy costs by $32 billion from 2025-2035.
- Cost America nearly 790,000 jobs in 2030 and more than 700,000 jobs in 2035.
- Decrease GDP more than $160 billion in 2030 and nearly $190 billion in 2035.
- Increase climate pollution more than 530 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2035, equal to adding 116 million cars to the road.
They also have an interactive map with which you can click on your state and find the impact of IRA repeal on your state jobs numbers and household energy bills. The energy bills include both electricity and increased fuel costs from reduced EV adoption.
Researchers at Harvard published a report estimating the effects of repealing the EV tax credit and other EV policies. Their results are summarized in this chart:
In short, they estimate that if all current policies remain in place, 48% of new US car sales in 2030 will be electric. If the IRA EV tax credits are repealed, that number will fall to 42%. If the EV charger tax credit (30C) and the federal funding for electric charging stations (NEVI) are also repealed, the EV share of new 2030 car sales will drop to about 35%. Repealing the other IRA EV incentives and California's Clean Air Act waiver (which allows the state to require that all new car sales be electric by 2035, for example) would have small effects, but all combined could reduce the EV share of 2030 new car sales to 32%.
Repealing the EV tax credit alone would mean about 4.6 million fewer EVs on the road by 2030, and 20 million tons more CO2 emissions in 2030. Repealing all these EV policies would mean about 10 million fewer EVs and 44 million more tons of 2030 CO2 emissions. Repealing the EV tax credit would also generate about $168 billion in revenue, while repealing all the rest of the EV policies would only save about another $4 billion, which is interesting. The others get a much bigger bang for the buck.
The energy modelers on Jesse Jenkins' Princeton REPEAT team also put out an analysis of the effects of repealing the EV tax credits and EPA vehicle tailpipe regulations, which we discussed over on the Nerd Corner. Their modeling suggests repealing the EV tax credit would have about twice as much effect as the Harvard analysis.
But modeling EV sales is a difficult challenge so there's a lot of uncertainty involved. Princeton also concludes that a whole lot of domestic EV and battery manufacturing facilities would be at risk if the EV tax credit is repealed, as discussed on the Nerd Corner thread 🤓
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