Rollercoaster turned upside down and hope for the new year

Thanks for posting this, Tony. This was disappointing but not the end. Is there any way we could get something much leaner+carbon price, with Mitt Romney supporting the bill? 

The climate's not going away and neither are we.

Thanks, Tony.  

Thanks, Tony. Beautifully written. I especially appreciate the last couple of paragraphs, about honoring one's feelings.

We in CCL are riding this roller coaster together, and that by itself, brings me hope. 

How did we let the future of our climate become dependent on one Senator from a coal producing state? There is so much to unpack in his statement - most of which is anathema to Democratic policy positions.  Is it possible to push for climate solutions that could draw in at least some Republican support - perhaps from the Conservative Climate Caucus? I'd love to see my grandkids supported with childcare tax credits - but more importantly, I want to envision a future for them without catastrophic global temperatures.

Hi @Breene Murphy 

I don't think there is much chance of a bipartisan version of reconciliation at this point. Anything else would require 60 votes as long as the filibuster rule is in place.

Tony

Hi @Cynthia Sandoval 

The story of how we got here is a long one going back to the constitution, the filibuster, budget reconciliation rules, the most recent elections etc. 

As I said to Breene, I don't think there is much chance of bipartisan reconciliation. We will continue our work on bipartisan climate policy as soon as that window of opportunity is open again.

Tony

[Below is an email I sent on Sunday to some folks in my chapter who have been very involved with lobbying.  I received several suggestions that I post it in Community, and this seems like the right spot.  Sorry it’s a bit long and rambling.  I agree with others that Tony did a great job kicking this conversation off with empathy and optimism.]

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Hello all,

Reading this morning that Sen. Manchin has stated emphatically that he will not vote for Build Back Better, I found myself heading to the keyboard to try to collect my thoughts and calm myself down.  What follows is a pretty raw "stream of consciousness" but I thought I'd share it in its unfinished state, to get your feedback and ideas.

I am still confident we are going to get CF&D enacted, but at this point it seems it will not be as part of reconciliation.

Onward,
Karl

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Thoughts on what’s next, now that Manchin has killed the Build Back Better Act
Karl Danz – December 19, 2021

I am not quitting.

One lone senator will not stand in the way of our ultimate success.

Along the way we have:

• Increased awareness of the benefits of carbon pricing by an order of magnitude
• Driven huge growth in the level of support across a diverse set of important stakeholders
• Sharpened our skills and become more effective advocates
• Kept a level head about the possibility of needing to go to “Plan B”
• Steadily increased the number of cosponsors on H.R.2307
• Set ourselves up for a “clean fight on the merits” with a standalone CF&D bill

Some in CCL were not happy that CF&D was bundled into a massive, complicated bill.  This can re-energize people who prefer the focus on the core mission.

What about needing to get this done during an election year?  Maps are all different now.  Many Republicans have nothing to lose in supporting H.R.2307.  

Utah.  Seems Utah could be key.  What if Sen. Romney called a press conference and said, “I have long supported a carbon fee and dividend approach.”  Imagine that Rep. John Curtis is standing next to him saying, “Mitt has convinced me that I can trust the government to distribute the dividend.  He said, ‘If we could do it with Social Security we can do it with carbon dividends,’ which was hard to dispute.”

Call it “The Climate Security Act”?  (Do for younger Americans what Social Security did for older Americans.)

How about Bob Inglis and Larry Fink showing up together for a hearty discussion about Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms at a meeting of the Conservative Climate Caucus?  American businesses will prosper, given that our industry is less carbon intensive than the competition.

Business leaders could issue statements such as “Well, now that we see that Congress could not get carbon pricing enacted via budget reconciliation, we are throwing our full weight behind a standalone bill.”  Let’s double the number of H.R.2307 business endorsements in 2022.

The right will celebrate the death of The Green New Deal.  To the extent that this is framed as “they tried to bundle everything together” (“Universal Basic Income in the same bill as carbon pricing?... Really?”) that presents an opportunity for conservatives to voice support for Carbon Dividends.

Some conservative CCL volunteers were concerned about a Democrat-only approach:

• Concerns regarding the long-term durability of a partisan bill
• Republican lawmakers were completely locked out of the reconciliation process and thus would have had no sense of ownership of any of the provisions, including CF&D.  Now we can get back to our roots, advocating for bipartisan legislation.  Bipartisanship had many benefits, including getting broader support from the American public and creating a more durable law.
• Importance of “elite cues” – conservative Americans hearing it from conservative leaders

Opportunity for Republicans to step forward and lead on climate.  It’s time for a jailbreak press conference with Romney, Braun, Murkowski and Graham, along with Kinzinger, Fitzpatrick, Katko and Curtis.

Hi Tony,

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and for maintaining a healthy mix of acknowledgment and pragmatic optimism.  
The glass half full is that it appears 49 Senators were willing to support carbon pricing.  This isn’t enough, but it’s still a very positive step forward.  
Build Back Better may yet pass in some form, but I think it’s unlikely carbon pricing will be included given Sen. Manchin’s previous opposition to the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP), which had a similar, transformational vision.  Also, Sen. Manchin keeps emphasizing the risks of inflation.
The strategy of putting CFD into reconciliation was worth a try, but I believe the results so far show we need to return to a bipartisan approach focused on EICDA as a stand-alone bill.  We know it doesn’t have bipartisan support yet, but I think that is the only path.  Many Independents and conservative Democrats share the outlook of Congressional Republicans.  Republicans have moved from outright denial to forming the Conservative Climate Caucus and discussing solutions.  Their proposed solutions are good but don’t match the scope of the problem.  We need to make that case and win them over. The uptick in climate-driven disasters is getting attention.  Let’s re-engage and focus explicitly on the case for faster emissions reductions.

Maybe the GOP has an opportunity here to show some leadership. Many young Republicans and independents feel strongly about climate change. If they did something besides complaining and proposed a business-friendly solution (carbon fee and dividend) they likely will gain voters.