Energy Innovation & Carbon Dividend Act Dataset
Would you like to know how big a dividend check a family of four is projected to receive in 2025? Or the total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 if the Energy Innovation Act policy is adopted? Or how the Act performs compared to the IPCC recommendations for emissions reduction? Well, now you don’t have to guess, or ask around, or try to sweat the numbers out yourself – the Energy Innovation & Carbon Dividend Act Dataset provides all of these answers and more!
The Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act of 2021 is the result of CCL’s many long years of working with Congress to enact a carbon fee and dividend (CF&D) policy. Along the way, multiple studies were conducted to forecast environmental and economic outcomes of the policy.
However, the Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act of 2021 has unique features that affect predicted outcomes and data. It also differs from the version introduced in the 116th Congress (H.R.763) in several ways:
- The policy would go into effect in 2022.
- Stronger emission reduction targets are now mandated to reach net zero by 2050, and go into effect starting in 2023.
- There is no longer a fluorinated gas fee because reductions of those greenhouse gases have now been addressed by separate legislation passed in December 2020.
- There is no longer a temporary suspension of greenhouse gas regulations on stationary sources of greenhouse gases.
CCL volunteers need CCL-approved data that matches what this legislation will produce as accurately as possible. This includes a comparison of Energy Innovation Act emissions forecasts with alternative legislative plans and proposals and findings of the IPCC.
That’s why we’ve produced this dataset in the form of an Excel spreadsheet (see dataset below) that makes all these results available to CCL volunteers. You can download this master version, and we will update it as necessary when new information becomes available.
What You Can Find
There are five basic types of Energy Innovation Act data that can be obtained from the dataset:
- The carbon fee schedule from 2022 to 2050
- The change in emissions year by year
- The amount of carbon fee revenue year by year, before and after administrative costs
- The total amount of money projected to be available for carbon dividends
- The projected size of an adult dividend for each year
A number of charts are provided in one of the dataset tabs, but there is also a ScratchPad tab where you can make your own tables and charts, either by copying and modifying pre-built charts or building your own from the data tables.
The Dataset includes other data for comparison with the 2021 bill:
- Emissions from a model of the 2019 bill by Resources for the Future.
- IPCC emissions required to meet 1.5 and 2°C thresholds.
- IPCC carbon pricing data.
The following four charts provide a glimpse into what information and visual data is available with the Energy Innovation & Carbon Dividend Act Dataset.
Figure 1. NET emission targets with IPCC, BAU, and RFF modeling
The data in this chart show the reduction in net U.S. CO2e emissions (total emissions minus carbon sinks) from 2022 to 2050. The green dots are the annual targets stipulated in the Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act. The dark gray dotted line denotes the Energy Department’s forecast of GHG emissions in the absence of any new policy (Business as Usual). The gray wedge represents the emissions range the U.S. would need to reduce within that corresponds with the IPCC’s predictions to proportionately hold global temperature rise between 1.5 and 2.0°C. The blue dashed line represents the first 12 years of emissions reductions yielded by the RFF model, adjusted for anticipated 2022 emissions as a starting point. In the data spreadsheet, users could copy and paste this chart into the ScratchPad page and then customize it, for example by deleting data series they didn’t need to show.
Figure 2: Annual Dividends for a family of four
The data in this chart shows the expected annual total of monthly carbon dividends for a family of four, based on the RFF emissions forecast followed by later emissions targets stipulated in the legislation. This data series is based on the assumption that the carbon fee continues to increase annually by $10 per metric ton of CO2e. The dollar amounts are expressed in 2020 dollars, not including the inflation adjustment. So, for example, if inflation from 2020 to 2030 totaled 20%, the amount in 2020 dollars -- $2,826 -- would actually be $3,391 in 2030 dollars.
Figure 3: Carbon fee cash flow as allocated between dividends and administrative cost
This chart shows the total amount of carbon dividend revenue expected for each year, based on the emissions reductions stipulated in the legislation, and how the revenue will be allocated between carbon dividends sent to households (in green) and administrative cost of the program (in orange). It shows that administrative cost is a small percentage of program revenue, and how those costs change very little while the total revenue increases.
Figure 4: HR763 price curve with the $5 'ratchet' starting in 2025 compared to IPCC SR1.5 'implied' carbon price ranges
This chart shows how the IPCC’s range of ‘implied’ CO2e prices for 1.5°C and 2°C limits of global temperature rise would compare with the legislation’s carbon fee levels if the annual fee increase was ‘ratcheted’ up to $15 per metric ton (indicated in the legend as ‘EICDA $5/mt’). The blue bars represent the range of modeled carbon prices reported in the IPCC 2018 Special Report for 1.5°C. They reported the numbers for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The dark blue segments denote the middle 75% of model outcomes, and the lighter blue segments denote the outlying high and low 25% of results. The gray bars represent analogous model results for 2°C. Note that the scale for carbon prices is a log scale, which is why the legislation’s carbon fee curve is not a straight line. All carbon prices shown are in 2020 dollars, not including the inflation adjustment. This shows that the carbon price with the ‘ratchet’ would easily meet the expectations of prices necessary to stay below 2°C, and would meet the lower range of modeled prices to stay below 1.5°C. For example, in 2050 the IPCC reported that 25% of the models predicted that a carbon price between $273 and $781 per metric ton would be required to stay below 1.5°C; in 2050, the carbon fee (assuming the ‘ratchet’ was in place) would be $1,184 per metric ton.
Examples of How To Use the Dataset
Here are some examples of things you can do with the data. These examples require some skill with manipulating Excel data and charts. If you need help, it’s likely that someone else in your chapter can help out.
- What if you are asked how much in carbon dividends a family with one adult and three children will receive in 2022, 2025, and 2030? You can pick the data from the “Tables” tab and scale it to the number of adults and children, including making your own table in the “ScratchPad.”
- What if someone asks how much in total carbon fee revenue the program will collect in the first 10 years? You can extract these numbers from the “Tables” tab and add it all up.
- What if you need a chart showing how the adult carbon dividend will change over the entire scope of the plan from 2022 to 2050? There is already a chart for that in the “Charts” tab.
- How about a table showing emissions under the bill compared to what the IPCC says we need to do? There are charts that contain those data and more, but you can copy and paste one into the ScratchPad and then delete the data you may not want, like the RFF projections.
Here is an overview of the 8 tabs that are visible in the dataset:
|Glossary||Definition of terms|
|Tables||Data tables showing the Energy Innovation & Carbon Dividend Act rate schedule, emissions results, carbon fund cash flow, and dividend payments.|
|BAU||BAU means 'Business as Usual.' It's where the estimate of the forecasted GHG emissions in the absence of any climate policy is located.|
|Model||Emissions forecast from a selected third-party (RFF) model, adapted to a 2022 starting year and estimated 2022 emissions.|
|IPCC||Emissions requirements to stay below 1.5° or 2°C, as published by Climate Action Tracker.|
|IPCC$||Data from the 2018 IPCC Special Report that estimates the 'shadow' carbon prices required to meet various 1.5° and 2°C scenarios.|
|Charts||A collection of charts and graphs based on the data in this document, also following the CCL Style Guide.|
|Scratch Pad||A blank page where you can make your own charts, tables, or notes drawing from the data in the other tabs. For example, you can copy and paste charts from the Charts tab and then alter them to suit your needs.|