Energy Innovation & Carbon Dividend Act Dataset

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Description

Would you like to know how big a dividend check a family of four is projected to receive in 2025? Or the total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 if the Energy Innovation Act policy is adopted? Or how the Act performs compared to the Clean Power Plan? Well, now you don’t have to guess, or ask around, or try to sweat the numbers out yourself –​ the Energy Innovation & Carbon Dividend Act Dataset​ provides all of these answers and more!

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Background

The Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act (H.R.763) is the result of CCL’s many long years of working with Congress to enact a carbon fee and dividend (CF&D) policy. Along the way, CCL commissioned the REMI Study to forecast environmental and economic outcomes of the policy.

However, H.R.763 differs from both the CF&D and the REMI study in several ways that could affect predicted outcomes and data: 

  • H.R.763 would go into effect in 2020.
  • Specific emission reduction targets are mandated every year from 2025 to 2050.
  • Carbon dividends will be available to all minors, not just the first two in a household.

CCL volunteers need CCL-approved data that matches what this legislation will produce as accurately as possible. This includes a comparison of  H.R.763 emissions targets with REMI predictions, the Clean Power Plan, the Paris Agreement, and findings of the IPCC. 

That’s why we’ve produced this dataset in the form of an Excel spreadsheet that makes all these results available to CCL volunteers. You can download this master version, and we will update it as necessary when new information becomes available. 

Energy Innovation Act Dataset Energy Innovation Act Dataset (updated 8.29.19 .xls)292 KB

What You Can Find

There are five basic types of H.R.763 data that can be obtained from the dataset:

  • The carbon fee schedule from 2020 to 2050
  • The change in emissions year by year
  • The amount of carbon fee revenue year by year, before and after administrative costs
  • The total amount of money projected to be available for carbon dividends
  • The projected size of an adult dividend for each year

A number of charts are provided in one of the dataset tabs, but there is also a ScratchPad tab where you can make your own tables and charts, either by copying and modifying pre-built charts or building your own from the data tables. 

The Dataset includes other data for comparison with H.R.763:

  • Emissions from the REMI model.
  • The Clean Power Plan 2030 emissions target.
  • The U.S. commitment for nations emissions under the Paris Agreement.
  • IPCC emissions required to meet 1.5 and 2°C thresholds.
  • IPCC carbon pricing data.

Key Highlights

The following four charts provide a glimpse into what information and visual data is available with the Energy Innovation & Carbon Dividend Act Dataset.
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Figure 1. NET emission targets with IPCC, BAU, REMI, CPP target, and US Paris Agreement pledge

The data in this chart show the reduction in net U.S. CO2e emissions (total emissions minus carbon sinks) from 2020 to 2050. The green dots are the annual targets stipulated in H.R.763 (Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act). The dark gray dotted line denotes the Energy Department’s forecast of GHG emissions in the absence of any new policy (Business as Usual). The blue cross is where GHG emissions would be in 2030 if the only change from 2020 were to meet the Clean Power Plan target for the electric power sector (CPP 2030 Target). The gray wedge represents the emissions range the U.S. would need to reduce within that corresponds with the IPCC’s predictions to proportionately hold global temperature rise between 1.5 and 2.0°C. The black diamond represents the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution pledge for 2025 under the Paris Agreement (Paris 2025). The dark green dotted line represents the first 10 years of emissions reductions yielded by the REMI study of a carbon fee and dividend policy, adjusted for anticipated 2020 emissions as a starting point  (REMI model). In the data spreadsheet, users could copy and paste this chart into the ScratchPad page and then customize it, for example by deleting data series they didn’t need to show. 

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Figure 2: Annual Dividends for a family of four

The data in this chart shows the expected annual total of monthly carbon dividends for a family of four, based on the emissions targets stipulated in H.R.763. This data series is based on the assumption that the carbon fee continues to increase annually by $10 per metric ton of CO2e. The dollar amounts are expressed in 2018 dollars, not including the inflation adjustment. So, for example, if inflation from 2018 to 2030 totaled 20%, the amount in 2018 dollars -- $123 -- would actually be $148 in 2030 dollars. 

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Figure 3: Carbon fee cash flow as allocated between dividends and administrative cost

This chart shows the total amount of carbon dividend revenue expected for each year, based on the emissions reductions stipulated in H.R.763, and how the revenue will be allocated between carbon dividends sent to households (in green) and administrative cost of the program (in orange). It shows that administrative cost is a small percentage of program revenue, and how those costs change vary little while the total revenue increases.

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Figure 4: HR763 price curve with the $5 'ratchet' starting in 2025 compared to IPCC SR1.5 'implied' carbon price ranges

This chart shows how the IPCC’s range of ‘implied’ CO2e prices for 1.5°C and 2°C limits of global temperature rise would compare with the H.R.763 carbon fee levels if the annual fee increase was ‘ratcheted’ up to $15 per metric ton (indicated in the legend as ‘HR763 $5/mt’). The blue bars represent the range of modeled carbon prices reported in the IPCC 2018 Special Report for 1.5°C. They reported the numbers for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The dark blue segments denote the middle 75% of model outcomes, and the lighter blue segments denote the outlying high and low 25% of results. The gray bars represent analogous model results for 2°C. Note that the scale for carbon prices is a log scale, which is why the H.R.763 carbon fee curve is not a straight line. All carbon prices shown are in 2018 dollars, not including the inflation adjustment. This shows that the H.R.763 carbon price with the ‘ratchet’ would easily meet the expectations of prices necessary to stay below 2°C, and would meet the lower range of modeled prices to stay below 1.5°C.  For example, in 2050 the IPCC reported that 25% of the models predicted that a carbon price between $273 and $781 per metric ton would be required to stay below 1.5°C; in 2050, the H.R.763 carbon fee (assuming the ‘ratchet’ was in place) would be $445 per metric ton. 

Examples of How To Use the Dataset

Here are some examples of things you can do with the data. These examples require some skill with manipulating Excel data and charts. If you need help, it’s likely that someone else in your chapter can help out.

  • What if you are asked how much in carbon dividends a family with one adult and three children will receive in 2020, 2025, and 2030? You can pick the data from the “Tables” tab and scale it to the number of adults and children, including making your own table in the “ScratchPad.”
  • What if someone asks how much in total carbon fee revenue the program will collect in the first 10 years? You can extract these numbers from the “Tables” tab and add it all up.
  • What if you need a chart showing how the adult carbon dividend will change over the entire scope of the plan from 2020 to 2050? There is already a chart for that in the “Charts” tab.
  • How about a table showing emissions under the bill compared to what the IPCC says we need to do, along with the U.S. Paris Agreement commitment? There are charts that contain those data and more, but you can copy and paste one into the ScratchPad and then delete the data you may not want, like the REMI or Clean Power Plan projections.

 

Here is an overview of the 10 tabs that are visible in the dataset:

UserGuide

Instructions for user.

Glossary

Definition of terms used in the document.

Tables

Emissions and financial tables for H.R.763 based on the emissions targets and carbon fee schedule stipulated in the bill, starting in 2020 and running through 2053. These include covered, net, and gross emissions in gigatons of CO2-equivalent and in percent of 2016 emissions, carbon trust fund revenue, estimated administrative costs, and dividend amounts for individuals and families.

BAU

A ‘business-as-usual’ emissions forecast from the Department of Energy

REMIetc

Emissions tables adapted from the REMI study, plus U.S. emissions targets under the Clean Power Plan and the Paris Agreement.

IPCC1.5

Emissions tables based on what the IPCC indicated would be needed to keep global emissions below 1.5°C (scaled to U.S. emissions).

IPCC2.0

Emissions tables based on what the IPCC indicated would be needed to keep global emissions below 2°C (scaled to U.S. emissions).

IPCC$

IPCC carbon pricing model results for 1.5° and 2° scenarios.

Charts

A collection of 12 pre-designed charts showing emissions, carbon prices, and financial data for the policy.

ScratchPad

A blank tab where you can extract data to make your own tables and charts.

Questions? Search for if others have asked similar thoughts in the Energy Innovation Act Forum here. If you don’t see an answer, feel free to start your own post and CCL’s research and legislative staff will respond.

Related Topics
Category
Resource
Topics
Climate Policy
Format
Report / Study
File Type
Spreadsheet